BC Cook
IF we substitute China for Athens and United States for Sparta, we are writing history in advance for the Pacific.
Since the end of the Second World War the United States has wielded hegemonic power in the Pacific region. The Soviet Union treated it as a lesser theater of operations and the Chinese did not have enough military or economic might to mount a serious challenge. Until now.
The most important post-Mao leader of China, Deng Xiaoping, once coined the phrase, “Hide your capacities, bide your time,” indicating that China was too weak to threaten the American position in the Pacific. But events over the last few years indicate that the Chinese are ready to raise a challenge. In 2010 Yang Jiechi, China’s foremost architect of foreign policy, told its Asian neighbors that “China is a big country and you are small countries. That is a fact.” Get the message? Know your place. The winds of power in the Pacific rim are blowing from a new direction.
Island building in the South China Sea. Once the Chinese made clear that they were the masters of mainland Asia they started expanding offshore. A disputed region in the South China Sea became the focus of an international legal battle that involved China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia. At stake were vast reserves of natural resources, including natural gas and possibly petroleum. After the United Nations declared that China has no historic claim to the area, the Chinese simply took it anyway, building artificial islands and flooding the area with military and industrial assets that no neighbor could match. Regardless of what the world body says, China now has a firm grip on the South China Sea and allies of the United States, such as the Philippines, have had to retreat.
North Korea. In spite of Beijing’s statements to the contrary, it is clear that China still props up the destitute Little Caesar in Pyongyang. Chinese ships have been caught on video, transporting commodities to North Korea in direct violation of U.N. sanctions. Just as it did over the South China Sea issue, China has ignored the desires of the international community and supported North Korea as its proxy in a showdown with the West. China’s worn-out position is: “Who, me?” but they are not fooling anyone with cries of innocence. Whenever the North Koreans can stick it to the United States, China benefits, sometimes directly and sometimes indirectly. A widely read Australian newspaper claimed that respect for American power in the region has declined in large part due to the weak American response to obvious Chinese challenges. The web of American interests weakens, North Korea does most of the heavy lifting, and Chinese power in the region grows.
New Silk Road. China is now proposing to link most of the Pacific world together in an economic and technological super highway it refers to as the New Silk Road. China tells Pacific nations that they will supply all the computers and industrial equipment necessary to bring them into the modern global economy. But it will come at a price. They must fold into the Chinese-led family of nations and abandon their relationships with the United States.
This sounds very familiar to historians. In ancient times, Athens made the same offer to Greek city-states. A hundred years ago, Germany made the same offer to other countries when Great Britain was the superpower. The Soviet Union made the same offer to the Third World during the Cold War. There is an old Chinese saying that two tigers cannot live on one mountain. In the Pacific, we are about to find out if two tigers can swim in one ocean.
BC Cook, PhD lived on Saipan and has taught history for over 30 years. He is a director and historian at Sealark Exploration (sealarkexploration.org).
